One Nation Overtakes Labor Nine Months Before Victoria Election: Poll

Melbourne, February 19: One Nation has recorded one of its strongest results yet in Victoria, with new polling placing the party ahead of the incumbent Labor government just nine months out from the state election.

The Roy Morgan poll shows One Nation leading the primary vote with 26.5 per cent support, edging past Labor on 25.5 per cent. The Liberal–Nationals Coalition trails on 21.5 per cent. If the election were held today, the result would likely produce a hung parliament, according to Roy Morgan.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor holds a narrow lead over both the Coalition and One Nation, polling 52–48 against the Coalition and 52.5–47.5 against One Nation. However, Roy Morgan warned that second and third preferences are set to play a decisive role, with the Greens and independents collectively polling between 13 and 13.5 per cent of the primary vote.

On third-party preferred results, Labor leads One Nation by a significant 15 per cent margin.

The poll is a major setback for Premier Jacinta Allan, who has faced sustained public scrutiny since taking over the leadership from Daniel Andrews. A majority of voters expressed dissatisfaction with her leadership, with 67.5 per cent disapproving of her performance as Premier. Only 30.5 per cent said they approved, while two per cent were undecided.

Voters also indicated a preference for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson over Ms Allan, with 51 per cent backing the Liberal leader as their preferred Premier. Disapproval of Ms Allan’s leadership cuts across all major age groups, both genders, and voters in both metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria.

In recent weeks, Ms Allan has faced criticism over the government’s response to bushfires, including accusations of cuts to the Country Fire Authority. During a visit to Alexandria in regional Victoria last month, she was heckled by residents as fires burned nearby, with one person shouting “shame on you”.

The survey was conducted across Victoria between February 13 and 16, polling 2,462 voters. The margin of error ranges from 0.6 to 1.3 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.

The results come as One Nation continues to surge in national polling, recently overtaking the Coalition for the first time, and just weeks ahead of the South Australian state election.