BNP Poised to Form Government, Tarique Rahman Set to Become Prime Minister

According to tallies received from party representatives up to 6:00 pm on Friday, (Melbourne time) BNP has won 209 of the 299 seats counted so far. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has secured 76 seats, while the National Citizen Party (NCP), Gano Odhikar Parishad, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and independent candidates have won several others. Preliminary estimates from official sources suggest as long as BNP is leading or winning in more than 200 seats overall, well above the 151-seat threshold required to form a government on its own.

Speaking at a post-election press conference, BNP Election Management Committee spokesperson Mahdi Amin said the party was confident of forming the government after winning more than two-thirds of the seats. He noted that securing over 200 seats in the 300-member parliament would also open the way for major decisions, including constitutional amendments.

A referendum on implementing the “July Charter” was held alongside the election. According to the latest updates, the “Yes” vote is leading by a wide margin. If approved, the proposal would initiate steps to transform the current unicameral parliament into a bicameral legislature.

This election marks the first time Tarique Rahman has led a national campaign. After assuming the role of party chairman following his mother’s death, he directed both the campaign and organisational strategy. The party’s secretary-general had earlier announced that Rahman would become prime minister if BNP won. Rahman secured a narrow victory in the Dhaka-17 constituency against a Jamaat candidate.

The Awami League did not participate in the election. Analysts say this made the contest largely one-sided, with much of the opposition vote consolidating behind BNP in the resulting power vacuum. Jamaat-e-Islami is also on track to achieve its highest-ever vote share and seat count, according to early results.

Analysts believe strong youth participation influenced the outcome, with younger voters prioritising future prospects and policy commitments over party tradition. Female voter turnout was also notable, accounting for around 49 per cent of voters. Minority communities participated in significant numbers as well, with many voters reportedly adopting strategic choices in the absence of the Awami League by backing candidates seen as locally viable or safer options.

Election Commission officials said voter turnout across the parliamentary election and the referendum exceeded 61 per cent, with the figure likely to rise once final counts are completed. While there were allegations of attempted booth capture, vote rigging, and sporadic clashes in some areas, no large-scale violence was reported. Notably, there were no fatalities during this election, a rare occurrence in recent history.

For comparison, voter turnout stood at 55 per cent in 1991, rose to 75 per cent in 1996 and 76 per cent in 2001, and peaked at 87 per cent in 2008. Although turnout in subsequent elections was contested, this year’s vote was conducted in a comparatively calm environment.

Following the July mass uprising, an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus took office on 8 August 2024, pledging judicial reform, institutional restructuring, and free and fair elections. After around 18 months of preparation, the long-awaited vote began at 7:30 am yesterday. Voters cast white ballots for the parliamentary election and pink ballots for the referendum.

The early trend in results points to a major reconfiguration of power. While the nation awaits the final official outcome, current tallies suggest the path is largely clear for a new government to be formed under the leadership of Tarique Rahman.