One Nation Disrupts Victoria’s Traditional Two-Party Contest as Election Race Tightens

Melbourne: Victoria could be heading towards an unprecedented three-way electoral contest, with One Nation challenging the long-established dominance of Labor and the Coalition.

With about 14 weeks remaining until the Victorian state election, recent polling reportedly places Labor, the Coalition and One Nation at around 25 per cent each in primary voting intentions. Political researchers say the results point to a genuine “three-horse race”—a scenario rarely, if ever, seen in Australian politics since Federation.

One Nation’s rapid rise has been attributed to mounting cost-of-living pressures, dissatisfaction with the major parties, concerns about crime and government spending, and public debate linking immigration with housing, infrastructure and liveability.

The party has yet to present a comprehensive Victorian policy platform and has been gradually announcing its candidates. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of former Labor voters appear prepared to support Pauline Hanson’s party at the November election.

Former Labor voters turning away

An Accent Research poll found that almost half of respondents who voted Labor at the 2022 Victorian election intended to vote differently this time.

According to the poll, 11 per cent planned to shift their support to the Coalition under Liberal leader Jess Wilson, while 13 per cent said they intended to vote for One Nation.

Cost of living emerged as the leading concern among respondents. Only 18.8 per cent believed Premier Ben Carroll and his Labor government were best placed to address those pressures—a particularly concerning result for the government.

Dr Emily Foley, a postdoctoral research fellow at Flinders University and the University of Canberra who is based in Melbourne, said Victoria was experiencing a political environment capable of producing a genuine three-way contest.

“It really is a three-horse race,” she told news.com.au.

Dr Foley said One Nation’s failure to release Victoria-specific policies might not significantly affect its current support because many voters were primarily motivated by a desire for political change.

“There’s an element of ‘it’s time’—that Labor is ousted—compounded by cost-of-living issues and the scandals around corruption,” she said.

“I don’t think it matters whether One Nation has Victoria-specific policies because people are sort of over it.”

One Nation candidates attract scrutiny

One Nation recently unveiled several Victorian candidates, including former AFL ruckman John Barnes, who played 202 games for Geelong and Essendon. Barnes, who has experienced serious health problems associated with repeated head injuries during his football career, will contest the seat of Essendon.

The party has also selected Garner Smith for Murray Plains, a safe Nationals-held electorate. Smith previously faced criticism over remarks he made after AFL star Dustin Martin was accused of touching a woman without consent. Smith’s subsequent response to critics also prompted public backlash.

Hairdresser Michael Piastrano will contest Berwick against former Victorian opposition leader Brad Battin. While standing as a Liberal candidate in 2022, Piastrano attracted controversy after making inflammatory comments about former premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The controversies have renewed questions about One Nation’s candidate-vetting procedures and its ability to manage a growing national political organisation.

The party has faced similar problems elsewhere. In South Australia, it endorsed Bruce Preece, who was reported by the ABC to have faced allegations of domestic abuse. One Nation also previously employed Sean Black, who was later convicted and imprisoned for raping his wife, to work on a federal election campaign.

In Western Australia, former upper-house candidate Parminder Singh apologised after describing gay people as mentally ill during a video interview.

Working-class frustration reshaping political loyalties

Despite these controversies, Dr Foley believes One Nation is benefiting from deep frustration among traditional working-class Labor voters, particularly in Victoria’s outer-western suburbs.

Many of these voters come from families that have supported Labor for generations but do not feel a cultural or political connection with the Liberal-National Coalition. That has allowed One Nation to present itself as an alternative for blue-collar and migrant families dissatisfied with Labor but unwilling to support the Coalition.

“When you see this number of former Labor votes going to One Nation, it’s really clear—particularly in those outer-western suburbs of Victoria—that their anger is palpable and they feel really let down by Labor,” Dr Foley said.

She described this as the “Mark Latham effect”, in which One Nation seeks to appeal directly to working-class voters who once formed a dependable part of Labor’s electoral base.

A different political environment in Victoria

Labor recently secured a convincing election victory in South Australia, despite a swing towards One Nation. However, South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas remains highly popular, and the state has traditionally been strong territory for Labor.

Victorian Labor faces a markedly different environment.

Former premier Daniel Andrews remained a deeply polarising figure, particularly because of his government’s handling of the pandemic. Nevertheless, he led Labor to a landslide victory in 2022 while the Coalition struggled with leadership instability and internal divisions.

The political landscape has since shifted. Jess Wilson is seeking to rebuild the Liberal Party as a credible alternative government, with a strong focus on public spending, debt and crime. Her media presence and efforts to move the party beyond internal disputes appear to be helping the Coalition regain support.

Meanwhile, Labor is contending with the legacy of the Andrews era, rising state debt and growing dissatisfaction over its economic management.

Can One Nation sustain its momentum?

How One Nation performs in Victoria will be closely watched as a test of the party’s broader national ambitions. Dr Foley expects it to achieve significant electoral success but remains uncertain about whether its current popularity can be sustained.

“Is 30 per cent the ceiling for One Nation? I think they will have significant electoral success, but there are key questions around One Nation’s capacity to sustain organisationally and all the conflicts that they’ve had with candidates,” she said.

The party’s lack of detailed state policies, controversial candidates and history of internal disputes could limit its longer-term growth. However, current polling indicates that the Victorian election may no longer be a conventional contest between Labor and the Coalition.

For the first time in contemporary Victorian politics, One Nation is positioned as a serious third force—turning November’s election into a potentially historic three-way battle.