Labor Headed for Landslide in South Australia as One Nation Surges, Poll Finds

Melbourne, February 27: A new poll has predicted a decisive victory for the Australian Labor Party in South Australia, while pointing to a dramatic surge in support for One Nation and a significant collapse in backing for the Liberal National Party.

Research conducted by Roy Morgan shows Labor’s primary vote at 35 per cent — five points lower than its result in the 2022 state election. However, on a two-party-preferred basis, the poll forecasts that incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas will lead Labor to an expanded majority of 59 per cent.

The most striking finding of the survey is the projected rise of One Nation. The party, led federally by Pauline Hanson, is predicted to secure 28 per cent of the primary vote — an increase of 25.4 percentage points compared to its 2022 performance.

In contrast, the Liberal National Party is forecast to suffer a sharp decline, with its primary support dropping by 19.7 percentage points to just 16.5 per cent. If the projections prove accurate, One Nation could emerge as the dominant opposition force in South Australia.

Such a result would represent the largest state election victory in South Australia this century, surpassing Labor’s 2006 result when it won 28 seats. The last time a single party secured more than 30 seats in the state was in 1993.

Primary Vote Predictions:

• Labor – 35%

• One Nation – 28%

• Liberal National Party – 16.4%

• Greens – 11%

• Other parties – 3%

• Independents – 6%

The survey was conducted between 19 and 23 February, sampling 2,172 South Australian voters.

With the election approaching, the poll suggests a potentially historic realignment in the state’s political landscape.