Bangladesh Polls: What Are Jamaat and Yunus Planning Next?

Melbourne, February 15: Bangladesh is undergoing a quiet but profound tectonic shift in its politics – not only in the obvious outcomes of the general election, but also in the subtler realignments beneath the surface. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a two-thirds majority, winning 212 of 299 seats. At first glance, this landslide appears to promise stability and a chance for the country to heal and reset after years of turmoil. But the picture is far more complicated.

The election has also delivered a “quiet victory” for Jamaat-e-Islami. A party that once struggled to win more than 18 seats has now secured an unprecedented 68 seats on its own – 71 in total with its 11-party alliance. While the BNP’s victory is unsurprising given the complete absence of the Awami League from the contest, Jamaat’s dramatic rise is harder to explain away. Multiple forces are clearly at work. Added to this is the endorsement of a sweeping referendum that will reshape Bangladesh’s political architecture in ways that are difficult to predict, even for the new leadership. The signs point to turbulence ahead.

How “Gen Z” Lost Its Ground

One of the most striking aspects of the election was the near absence of the so-called “Gen Z” revolutionary student leaders. They managed to win just five seats and contested only 30 constituencies. Their decline was already visible on campuses, where students in at least five universities voted for Jamaat’s student wing instead of the aspiring student leaders who once claimed to represent a new political awakening. In plain terms, they were routed at the polls.

Somewhere, serious miscalculations were made – though not by Jamaat. By aligning with Jamaat, the student leaders appear to have undermined their own credibility and prospects. Ironically, Jamaat succeeded in projecting a more “mainstream” image, fuelled by rumours – cost-free but effective – that 27-year-old Nahid-ul-Islam could be its prime ministerial face. In the end, Nahid won his Dhaka-11 seat against the odds, but little more came of the experiment. There is a troubling sense of “use and discard” in how the students were politically deployed, and that deserves much closer scrutiny.

The Forgotten Awami League

The total absence of the Awami League (AL) was reflected in the low voter turnout – hardly surprising. Even Gopalganj, long considered an AL stronghold, delivered a sweeping victory for the BNP. This suggests an unspoken understanding that a mainstream party victory is preferable to Jamaat filling the vacuum. At the same time, reports of intimidation against Awami League voters are deeply worrying.

Equally notable is the AL’s failure to mobilise meaningful international support against its outright ban. None of the 300-plus foreign observers appear to have highlighted this exclusion, and major international newspapers barely mentioned the AL at all – despite having previously devoted extensive coverage to allegations of rigged elections. Many of those criticisms were justified, but they were hardly unique in Bangladesh’s electoral history. The reality is that the Awami League now faces the urgent task of rebuilding its credibility and revitalising its grassroots leadership.

Jamaat’s Quiet but Strategic Win

The most consequential outcome of the election is Jamaat’s surge. This is not only the largest parliamentary presence in the party’s history; it also signals its growing competitiveness with the BNP. Even in Dhaka-17, where Tarique Rahman is said to have won by a “landslide”, the actual margin over the Jamaat candidate was only 4,399 votes, though Rahman did win convincingly in Bogura-6. Jamaat is also close behind the BNP in key constituencies along the Indian border, including Lalmonirhat and Nilphamari, and has swept Rangpur and other frontier areas.

This will be unsettling for New Delhi, given Jamaat’s past hostility towards India and its continuing proximity to Pakistan, despite recent assurances of friendship with all neighbours – a list that conspicuously included Bhutan alongside India, a symbolic signal aimed squarely at Delhi.

Among major parties, Jamaat was the most vocal in deploying anti-India rhetoric during the campaign. Local media have also reported that it was particularly adept at weaponising social media to spread disinformation.

Crucially, Jamaat has given full backing to the referendum that proposes sweeping constitutional changes. These reforms aim to curb the powers of the prime minister and expand the role of the opposition – changes that will reshape how Bangladesh is governed for years to come. Jamaat has also entrenched its influence in universities and could again mobilise student politics to generate future unrest against the ruling coalition. For now, it will likely present itself as a force for peace and stability to a population exhausted by chaos – but its long game is unmistakable.

What Happens to Yunus?

This brings us to Muhammad Yunus, whose influence over the reform agenda is undeniable. The referendum contains 84 proposals, around 70 of which involve constitutional amendments. Presenting such a complex and far-reaching package to a public with limited awareness of its details is problematic. Allowing the referendum to be voted on alongside national elections is unprecedented in any mature democracy and bypasses the detailed parliamentary and legal scrutiny that constitutional reforms demand.

Some of the changes appear innocuous but carry significant implications. Declaring all languages equal to Bangla effectively creates greater space for Urdu, long promoted by Jamaat and its allies in Pakistan, and its use has visibly increased at political rallies. Other proposals – expanding the powers of the President, allowing the central bank governor to be appointed without consulting the Prime Minister, and mandating that parliamentary committees be chaired by the opposition – will constrain the authority of any future head of government.

Yunus has also overstepped his mandate by negotiating a trade arrangement with the United States. The issue is not the tariff rates themselves, but the announcement that Bangladesh would replace Indian yarn – its largest supplier – with American yarn. Given the logistical costs and geographic realities, this is far from straightforward. Taken together, Yunus’s actions suggest that he is unlikely to “retire” from political influence any time soon and may continue to shape policy from behind the scenes, including through proximity to Jamaat.

India, the BNP and the Road Ahead

For India, the BNP’s victory carries two implications. The party’s past tolerance of militant networks remains a troubling legacy, but the regional context has changed. New Delhi has already reached out warmly to Tarique Rahman, who has himself endured imprisonment and political setbacks. The darker memories will linger, but the BNP’s greatest threat in governance is not India – it is Jamaat, which will seek to undermine the new administration and position itself as the dominant alternative in the next election. As the second-largest party in parliament, Jamaat’s appetite will only grow.

Rahman must also manage the inflated expectations of the disillusioned “Gen Z”. Meeting those demands will require pragmatic cooperation with neighbours, including China, to revive an economy battered by years of instability.

What India Should Do

India still has room to shape the trajectory of relations, despite Yunus’s dilatory manoeuvres. Bilateral trade exceeded USD 13 billion in 2025, with India importing around USD 2 billion worth of goods from Bangladesh. China’s corresponding import figure is roughly half of that, even as Bangladesh runs a massive trade deficit with Beijing. India and Bangladesh have traded in local currencies since 2023, easing pressure on Dhaka’s foreign exchange reserves. Indian companies remain deeply embedded in Bangladesh’s economy across FMCG, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure, with firms such as Asian Paints, Dabur and Tata Motors operating through local subsidiaries.

Keep It Low-Key

The two economies are deeply intertwined. New Delhi should acknowledge this interdependence and expand it carefully – but quietly. Any overt projection of Indian influence risks becoming politically toxic for the BNP leadership, which cannot afford to be branded “pro-India” in the current climate.

Pakistan will predictably seek to capitalise on the moment with high-visibility gestures of support, from diplomacy to cricket diplomacy. China, more cautiously, will promise assistance but deliver primarily through investments rather than grants. In this crowded geopolitical field, India’s comparative advantage lies in behaving like a respectful neighbour: agile in offering help when needed, and sensitive to Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Even in a hard-nosed, transactional world, morality still matters in relations between states. This is a moment for India to practise it – while keeping its eyes and ears firmly open.

— Dr Tara Kartha
Former Director, National Security Council Secretariat

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s own.